The Hormuz Collapse: Polycentric Fragility and the End of Hydrocarbon Safety

The catastrophic failure of the June 17 U.S.-Iran MOU has functionally closed the Strait of Hormuz, shattering the interim ceasefire and triggering a direct military escalation that redefines global energy liquidity. This event marks a structural turning point from fragile diplomacy to high-intensity conflict, forcing a violent capital reallocation toward hard assets and defense equities as the illusion of sovereign debt safety evaporates. The crisis confirms 2026 as a global power shift year where a polycentric, fragile order replaces the old multipolar stability.