The Triad of Ruptures: How Iran, Nuclear Collapse, and Minerals Are Shattering the Global Order

A triad of crises—US military coercion against Iran, the collapse of nuclear arms control, and China’s weaponization of critical minerals—is fragmenting the post-2022 international order. With a 60% likelihood of a US strike on Iran, the expiration of New START, and near-total Chinese control over rare earths, the foundations of global stability are crumbling.