The US-Led Order Is Dead: 2026 Enters the Era of Capacity-Based Geopolitics

2026 marks a decisive rupture in international relations as the rules-based US-led order dissolves into a transactional, militarized, and regionally contested system. Three flashpoints—Middle East coercion, alliance unpredictability, and critical mineral dominance—converge to force a global re-pricing of power where industrial capacity and military reach now dictate the terms of competition over treaties and norms.