The US–Iran Ceasefire Collapse and the End of Managed Rivalry

The July 8 collapse of the Trump-declared US–Iran ceasefire has triggered a brink-of-wider-conflict scenario in the Middle East, coinciding with the 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara. This convergence signals a systemic shift from managed rivalry to active geopolitical contestation, driven by the expiry of New START and the weaponization of critical minerals [1][2][3].