Stalled Disinflation: The Fragile Equilibrium of Higher-for-Longer Rates

Global disinflation has abruptly stalled, reversing the 2024–2025 trend as a renewed Middle East energy shock pushes headline inflation to 4.7% in 2026. Central banks are forced into a 'higher-for-longer' stance, creating a fragile equilibrium where geopolitical volatility and AI-driven growth pull in opposite directions, risking a cascade of financial instability if policy errors occur.