Stalled Disinflation: How War and AI Are Bifurcating the Global Economy

Global disinflation has stalled as a Middle East supply shock reverses the 2024–2025 trajectory, pushing headline inflation to 4.7% in 2026 while an AI-driven investment boom creates a bifurcated world. Central banks are boxed into a "higher-for-longer" stance, forcing emerging markets to prioritize currency defense over growth as the Strait of Hormuz becomes the new geopolitical red line for trade [1][2][5].