Disinflation Stalls: Middle East War Forces Hawkish Central Bank Pivot Globally

The global disinflation trend has abruptly stalled as a negative supply shock from the Middle East war drives headline inflation upward, forcing central banks to reprice policy toward hawkishness. Amid resilient growth and AI-driven momentum, policymakers face a critical pivot where renewed energy volatility or tech corrections could trigger a systemic reset.