Geopolitical Stagflation: The End of the Soft Landing Era

The Middle East conflict has triggered a global supply-side cost-push crisis, reversing disinflation and forcing central banks into a hawkish pivot that shatters the 'higher-for-longer' consensus. IMF data confirms headline inflation will rise to 4.7% in 2026 while growth slows to 2.6%, marking a definitive transition from demand-driven to supply-shock stagflation.