IMF Cuts Global Growth to 3.1% in 2026, Inflation to 4.4% on Middle East Energy Shock

IMF forecasts global growth slowing to 3.1% in 2026 with headline inflation rising to 4.4%, assuming short-lived Middle East conflict and 19% energy price increase. Downside risks from prolonged war could slash growth to 2.5% or 2% in adverse scenarios. Financial markets show stagflation fears with S&P 500 up 1%, gold at $4,775/oz, and Brent crude closing below $100/barrel.