IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth to 3.1% on Middle East War, Inflation to Hit 4.4%

The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook projects global growth slowing to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025 due to the Middle East conflict since late February. Headline inflation rises to 4.4% in 2026 before falling to 3.7% in 2027, hitting emerging markets hardest. S&P Global slashes its 2026 global GDP forecast by 0.5 points to 2.4%, forecasting ECB rate hikes in Q2 2026.[1][4]